Early Blue Beetle projections point to a rough debut

Blue Beetle faces an uphill battle no matter what, but early projections are particularly critical of what it could pull off and how it could falter. This film is only a month away, and with the SAG-AFTRA strike in full swing, it’s hard to say how much promotion there will be ahead of its release.

Early projections by Box Office Pro (via Dark Horizons) predict the film will make $12-$17 million in its opening weekend, which is typically a vital part of the film’s theatrical release. Meanwhile, they suspect it will foster a domestic $27-$55 million range. These estimates are abysmal for a good chunk of major media, not even tacking on this a superhero movie, which often does pretty well if done properly.

These numbers are well below both Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash, which debuted at $30 and $55 million, respectively, but there’s something the others have that Blue Beetle doesn’t — a standout multimedia presence.

Fury of the Gods was the sequel to a remotely successful movie based on a comic book character who was fairly well-known in the DC comics sphere. The Flash is an established hero often seen in other DC projects. Blue Beetle, on the other hand, has a limited successful run in the multimedia space. He’s been in stuff, but not in a “wholly standout” kind of way.

The saving grace is that the film isn’t as big-budget as the other two were, reportedly working with $120 million and a slightly shorter runtime than the others, too. This means the movie is a lot more economical than the other box office bombs found in the depths of DC’s library. So, if the film were to do even remotely well, it could be seen as a success.

To make matters more complex, though, lead actor Xolo Maridueña is forced to hold off on the press junket amid the ongoing strike, leading to him asking fans to promote it in his stead. That doesn’t mean Warner Bros. won’t shove in as much promo as they can closer to its mid-August debut.